Today I saw someone screenshot a "coincidental transfer" image again, claiming that internal information was leaked early... I actually want to break down the path first: which pool it came from, how many transfers it went through, whether each step's amount/time interval looks like a robot scheduled transfer, or more like manual batch splitting. Many so-called "coincidences" on the chain are just a series of explainable habits: saving on fees, using aggregators, bridging chains, or conveniently returning change. Probability is quite annoying; if you only look at the last hop, it seems like a conspiracy, but looking at the whole process, it often just boils down to "they're moving funds around / clearing out / market making." By the way, I recently thought about the NFT royalty debate, which is also fundamentally a path issue: how money flows from secondary markets back to creators' pockets. If it can't be done, people will just argue. Anyway, tonight I'll finish drawing this transfer's "storyline." It's a bit depressing, but at least it can prevent some innocent addresses from being wrongly accused.