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HSBC: UAE's "withdrawal" impact may become evident when the strait reopens
Coin Circle Network news: In a research report, HSBC said that the UAE’s exit from OPEC+ will have limited impact on the oil market in the short term, but over time it may weaken the organization’s supply discipline and price management capabilities. HSBC expects that, in the short term, changes in global oil supply will not be significant, as crude oil exports from the Gulf region have remained restricted since the end of February. During the period when shipping lanes are restricted, the UAE has limited room to increase production. The Abu Dhabi crude oil pipeline has a daily throughput capacity of about 1.8 million barrels, and it is very likely already operating at full capacity. Once the shipping route through the Strait of Hormuz resumes normal navigation, the UAE will no longer be constrained by OPEC+ production quotas and can gradually raise output. The bank estimates that the daily production of Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) is expected to increase to more than 4.5 million barrels, while OPEC+ quotas during May 2026 are about 3.4 million barrels per day. HSBC said that any incremental supply is expected to be released in phases over 12 to 18 months rather than immediately.