Supply is loose, upstream pressure on rubber is gradually increasing

Southeast Asian production regions are gradually stabilizing, rubber output is steadily increasing, raw material supply pressure is slowly rising, natural rubber spot liquidity is loose, spot prices are gradually declining, and the arbitrage space between futures and spot is narrowing. The rainy season is gradually arriving in Yunnan, and in the short term, domestic raw material supply is unlikely to see a significant increase, but supply-side pressure has already emerged. Demand shows divergence, with downstream rubber tire companies maintaining neutral operating levels, finished product inventories are relatively high, and the recovery of terminal auto parts and replacement tire demand is weak. Coupled with export orders not recovering as expected, manufacturers are cautious in procurement, mainly purchasing on demand, with limited support from just-needed demand. From a production cost perspective, oil price fluctuations are stabilizing, reducing their influence on rubber prices. Short-term news may cause sudden changes, but their impact remains limited. The main Shanghai rubber futures maintain range-bound fluctuations, with clear resistance above, currently lacking strong positive catalysts. The current pattern of loose rubber supply and weak demand has not changed, making a trend-driven rise unlikely. It is expected that Shanghai rubber will continue to fluctuate sideways tomorrow, with a focus on raw material prices in producing regions, downstream operating rates, and macroeconomic news changes, while remaining alert to downward pressure from inventory accumulation. (Natural Rubber Network)