Recently, I keep seeing people take the stablecoin supply, ETF net inflows, and OTC (off-exchange) funds—these lines of data—and force them into a single story of “capital is coming in”… I understand everyone wants to look for signals, but let’s be honest: correlation doesn’t equal causation. Between them, there are too many motives and too many different ways of framing the data. More stablecoins could also simply mean people moving assets—brick by brick—doing market making or hedging while they stock up ammunition. ETF inflows and outflows could also be hedge desks rebalancing positions; it doesn’t necessarily mean they’re waiting to pump the market.

The same goes for the RWA stuff. This time, people put things like U.S. Treasury yields and all kinds of on-chain “yield products” into the same comparison—it sounds pretty good, but my first reaction is still to check who is actually holding the underlying assets in custody and who is handling the clearing. I also want to see whether there are any strange wallets on-chain that keep moving money around in circles. In any case, what I fear most isn’t actually losing money—it’s understanding too late: when liquidity suddenly gets pulled, or contract permissions get changed, there won’t even be time—or even a chance—to withdraw. For now, if anything looks abnormal, I’d rather withdraw first and ask questions later.