The United Arab Emirates announces its withdrawal from OPEC+, signaling a shift in the Middle Eastern energy order.

The United Arab Emirates(UAE) announced that it will withdraw from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries(OPEC) and OPEC+(OPEC+) starting May 1, creating a clear crack in the oil-producing countries’ cooperation framework that has served as the pivotal axis for regulating international crude oil market supply for more than 60 years. As this decision was made amid war-related turmoil involving the United States, Israel, and Iran—when the Strait of Hormuz was blocked and oil prices swung sharply—its impact may extend beyond simply leaving the organizations and could deliver a significant blow to the balance of power in the Middle East and the overall order of the energy market.

In its statement on the 28th, the UAE said the withdrawal reflects its long-term strategy, economic vision, and a continuously evolving energy market environment. Although it is outwardly presented as a forward-looking energy strategy, the market widely interprets it as longstanding accumulated dissatisfaction finally coming to the surface. The actual decision-making within OPEC and OPEC+ has long been led by Saudi Arabia and Russia—particularly Saudi Arabia, which has a strong inclination to defend fiscal revenues by maintaining high oil prices through production cuts. By contrast, the UAE is a country that continuously invests to expand capacity. Its strategy is to extract more oil to monetize faster and reinvest the proceeds into non-oil sectors such as finance, tourism, and high-tech industries. In this context, production quotas( the production caps of member countries) are seen as constraints on the UAE’s growth.

The backdrop to this decision also involves diplomatic and security conflicts with Saudi Arabia. The two countries previously jointly intervened in Yemen’s civil war, but later diverged on which side’s local proxy forces to support. While Saudi Arabia backed the Yemeni government forces, the UAE supported southern separatist forces. In January this year, the Saudi-backed government forces captured Aden, which was seen as a UAE stronghold, and afterward the UAE fully withdrew its remaining forces from the rest of Yemen—meaning military cooperation between the two countries has effectively come to an end. In addition, amid this Iran-war situation, when the UAE’s core logistics hubs—Fujeirah Port and Jebel Ali Port—came under threat from Iranian drones and missiles, the UAE had expected the Gulf Cooperation Council(GCC) to take stronger joint action. However, in practice it remained limited to information sharing and logistical support, and observers believe the UAE was quite disappointed by this.

The key focus of the international crude oil market is whether the UAE’s withdrawal will lead to a meaningful increase in actual supply in the future. Once freed from the cartel’s production cut constraints, the UAE’s room to increase output on its own expands. Even if concerns about temporary supply disruptions due to the war remain, over the medium to long term this could become pressure to push down international oil prices. Jan von Greich, chief analyst at Finland’s Nordea Bank, told Reuters that the UAE wants to produce more oil, and this would become a downward factor for oil prices. Ajay Parma, director of global research firm ICIS, also commented that given the UAE’s long-standing disagreement with OPEC’s overall policy, the decision is not surprising, but its long-term impact will be very significant. Sergey Vakulenko, a former senior executive at Gazprom Neft, also pointed out that the UAE has been seeking up to 30% capacity expansion, but it is difficult to achieve it within the existing framework.

Ultimately, this withdrawal is not a one-off shock in the midst of wartime emergency, but more like a revealing event that shows oil-producing countries are no longer acting based on common interests. OPEC has long been the core organization that steers oil price direction through production cuts and increases, but once major members’ strategies diverge, its ability to control the market will inevitably weaken. In particular, if the rift between the UAE and Saudi Arabia becomes even more pronounced, unity among Middle Eastern oil producers is unlikely to return to previous levels. Even after future conflicts subside, this trend could weaken OPEC’s ability to regulate prices, pushing international oil prices into a structural environment with greater volatility than today.