Recently, I’ve been feeling a bit guilty about analyzing on-chain address profiles... All kinds of tags, clustering, and fund flow visualizations look just like criminal investigation boards. Honestly, it’s just guessing based on “whether it looks like the same person or not.” I used to follow these methods too, but I found that many times it’s like looking through fog with a radar: you can see a general direction, but the details all rely on guesswork.

Especially now, with a bunch of testnet incentives and token expectation hype making people restless, everyone is betting on whether the mainnet will issue tokens. When an address moves, someone shouts for big players to enter. But some clustering methods are really prone to false positives: multi-signature wallets, exchange hot wallets, even addresses generated by the same script. Labeling them as “smart money” is like putting tiger stripes on a cat... I now mostly treat it as weather forecast reference; when entering positions, I still stick to risk management, tighten stop-losses, or I’ll be sleepless again overnight watching the charts.