I’ve been following the gold issue and the conflict in the Middle East for a while, and things are more complex than they seem at first glance.

We tend to think that geopolitics always pushes gold higher, but the real driver of price is, above all, the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate policy. The conflicts in the Middle East? They act more like temporary noise. Of course, when things heat up, the market rushes into gold as protection, but once those expectations materialize, the story changes.

I see a very clear pattern. In the initial phase—when the conflict threatens to break out—everyone buys gold out of fear of supply chain disruptions, an energy crisis, all of that. But when it actually happens and oil prices rise, then the Federal Reserve hardens its stance: real interest rates go up, the dollar strengthens, and gold falls. It’s like a seesaw between oil prices and gold prices in the short term.

Historical data speak for themselves. In the Gulf War in 1991, gold rose 17% beforehand, but fell 12% when the fighting began. In 2003, during the Iraq War, it rose 35% on expectation and then fell 13% afterward. Why? Because the U.S. had total control of the situation—the conflict was contained and predictable.

Now, 2023 with Israel-Palestine was different. Gold rose at first, but then got stuck in wild volatility while the Federal Reserve kept interest rates high. In the long run, the trend was an oscillating rise, but there was no clean, sustained move.

Jumping to 2026 and the current scenario involving the U.S. and Iran: things are more uncertain. The U.S. no longer has the dominant posture it had before, and geopolitics is more fragmented. Gold peaked early on, but after March it fell in line with the historical pattern. Now it’s April, and the market is very weak, with high volatility.

Basically, three things will determine everything going forward. First: the Federal Reserve. If it keeps interest rates high and the dollar strong, gold suffers. If it starts cutting, then gold can breathe. Second: the price of oil. If the conflict truly expands, oil will surge, inflation rises, real interest rates fall—and that’s when gold really takes off. Third: the degree to which the conflict spills over. If it stays localized, gold will probably return to pre-conflict levels. If there is full spillover? Then the story is different.

And there’s a factor that’s gaining weight more and more: de-dollarization. Central banks are buying gold like never before—not just as a safe haven, but as a geopolitical reconfiguration itself. The fragmentation of global power, the search for alternatives to the dollar—everything supports gold in the long run. Even with high interest rates, the demand for de-dollarization doesn’t disappear.

In the long-term scenario, if the conflict truly gets out of control—if energy becomes scarce and inflation runs rampant—then gold will come back with full force. This isn’t just a safe haven; it’s also the function of a monetary asset, an instrument of de-dollarization, and protection against the collapse of confidence in the dollar as a reserve currency.

But for now, between April and May, what I’m seeing is weakness and high volatility. Negotiators are moving, and the market is waiting. If the conflict expands without losing total control, inflation will intensify, the Federal Reserve will delay rate cuts, real interest rates will rise, and gold will stay trapped. Any escalations may bring rebound-like spurts, but nothing sustainable.

Historically, gold tends to return to pre-conflict levels within 60 to 180 days. If the U.S. can control things the way it did before, gold will reverse once interest rates start to fall. But if it loses control, then de-dollarization and the search for protection will gain full strength, and gold will break upward with no turning back.

What will really determine this is the U.S. action over the next few days. The ability to control the conflict is crucial. Looking ahead, global geopolitical reconfiguration, the fragmentation of power, ongoing de-dollarization, and gold purchases by central banks will give gold an increasingly important role as a strategic asset. In the long run, this trend is clear.