I am just tracking a highly tense situation in the market. Negotiations between the US and Iran have completely collapsed, and Trump is already threatening to control the Strait of Hormuz. This is not just political theater — it’s a real risk to oil supplies.

The real-time oil price shows wild volatility. Brent has soared above $103, and the spot market is going crazy — reaching $144 per barrel. Asian refineries are literally buying oil at any price because they fear shortages. Macquarie warns that if the conflict drags on until June, prices could break $200. This is no longer speculation; it’s a real scenario.

Against this backdrop, gold and silver are correcting — down about 1.5% and 2.5% respectively. It seems strange, but investors are currently betting on geopolitical normalization rather than catastrophe.

Cryptocurrencies are also under pressure. Bitcoin has fallen 2.55% to $75,950, Ethereum down 2.57% to $2,270. The total crypto market cap has dropped 2.7% to approximately $2.49 trillion. About $282 million was liquidated in the past 24 hours. Interestingly, the current BTC price is right on the edge of mass liquidations. If it breaks below $70,000, a cascade of long position liquidations will begin. And above $71,500, a short squeeze could trigger.

Owners of energy company debts are smiling — the energy sector has grown over 2% today alone. Oil giants are in the green everywhere. Meanwhile, the tech equipment sector is growing — Broadcom +4.69%, AMD +3.55%, Nvidia +2.57%. Morgan Stanley says that demand for computing power for AI is growing three times faster than supply. Power shortages in American data centers could reach 55 gigawatts by 2028. This is a systemic problem.

Good news from Hong Kong on the crypto front. HSBC and Standard Chartered received their first licenses to issue stablecoins. This means traditional banks are finally starting to seriously enter crypto payments and settlements. This is a turning point for the industry.

Regarding macroeconomics, the core CPI for March increased by 0.196% month-over-month — slightly below expectations. But an energy shock could manifest later. The Fed expects oil prices to decline, but if prices stay high, the rate-cut cycle will slow down. This is bad for overvalued growth companies.

Overall impression: the market is shifting from pricing based on expectations to pricing based on reality. Capital is concentrating in AI hardware, raw materials, and dividend-paying stocks. Volatility is increasing, but medium- and long-term trends are still unchanged. This week marks the start of bank earnings season — JPMorgan, Wells Fargo, Bank of America, Citigroup, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs. They will watch how oil prices affect asset quality and profitability.

For crypto investors, important: support is coming from institutional flows and breakthroughs in stablecoin regulation. ETFs on BTC and ETH show steady inflows. If geopolitics eases and the AI trend continues, capitalization could return to historical highs. But expect more volatility in the short term.