Just saw something interesting from Tom Dunleavy at Varys Capital about how VC investing has completely flipped in the past half year. The whole dynamic between VCs and founders has basically reversed.

Six months ago, if you wanted to do VC investing at the seed level, you had to be constantly grinding—networking events, podcasts, Twitter Spaces, the whole circus. You'd be on calls nonstop, basically hunting for deals. Now? It's the opposite. As long as you've got dry powder, projects are literally coming to you. The supply-demand equation just inverted.

What's wild is where most VCs are positioned right now. According to Tom, there are basically three buckets: firms that have already deployed everything and are sitting on the sidelines, shops that moved upmarket to Series A and later-stage deals, or teams actively out fundraising (and struggling to close it). That middle ground of active seed-stage VC investing? It's gotten pretty thin.

The numbers tell the story—fundraising rounds that used to close in 2-3 weeks are now taking 2-3 months. And the quality filter is real now. Copycats chasing the latest narrative, projects with shaky fundamentals, they're not attracting capital anymore. That's actually healthy for the market.

Here's what caught my attention: Tom reckons there are probably fewer than 20 actual firms still actively doing pre-seed and seed VC investing right now. That's a remarkably small number. Which means if you're one of those firms with capital and conviction, you've got serious leverage in deal selection. More time for diligence, more time to pick winners instead of just moving fast.

The implication is pretty clear—2025 and 2026 could shape up to be a historically significant window for VC investing, but only if those firms can stay patient and keep their powder dry. The ones that survive this shakeout and maintain dry powder could be positioned for something special.