UAE suddenly “backs out of the group”—will the global energy landscape be turned upside down?

The UAE announced that it will withdraw from the OPEC and the “OPEC+” mechanism starting May 1. Simply put, it has broken with the Saudi-led group.
The reason isn’t complicated: the UAE wants to take advantage of high oil prices to extract more and sell more. But multiple applications to increase its production quota have been rejected. This time, it’s doing it on its own—and the move is tacitly permitted by the United States in the background. After all, lowering oil prices and weakening OPEC’s influence aligns with the White House’s interests.
In the short term, the UAE can release 500,000 to 800,000 barrels per day of production capacity. Its target for next year is 5 million barrels per day, and it could become the world’s second-largest net exporter. Some people are worried—what if the Strait of Hormuz is blocked by Iran? The UAE is already prepared. The pipelines to the port of Fujairah can move 1.8 million barrels per day and are operating at their limit.
On the other side, Iran’s Ministry of Defense issued a statement on the same day, strongly responding to the United States’ unlawful demands and stressing that sovereignty cannot be interfered with.
One side is a Gulf ally “backing out” to boost production; the other is Iran going head-on against the United States. The geopolitical tug-of-war in the oil market is getting more and more interesting. What happens to oil prices next? Worth close attention.
Do you think this move by the UAE is a wise self-protective move—or a risky gamble taking on a direct showdown alone? $DOGE