This week, the Fed is set to once again be at the center of attention, and honestly, within the committee the real fight is already beginning. The market consensus is clear—cut by 25 basis points—but here’s the catch: this decision looks like a compromise rather than a firm, confident stance.

Alan Blinder, the former Fed vice chair, says outright that the likelihood of a cut is higher than that of keeping rates unchanged. But here’s what’s interesting—he doesn’t rule out that it will be precisely such a “hawkish” cut, when the rate falls but the signals remain tough. In other words, Powell will likely use the press conference to make it clear to the market: don’t expect further consecutive easing. This is a classic move—a cut, but with no promises.

Look at how different positions are inside the system. Boston Fed Chair Collins and Kansas City Fed Chair both take the view that inflation is still too high—( 2.8% core PCE in September—and the Fed’s target is 2%), so there’s no need to rush. Chicago’s Goolsbee also expresses doubts. On the other hand, New York Fed’s Williams hinted a few weeks ago at support for easing. And you know what’s interesting? Former Cleveland Fed Chair Mester noted that deputy chairs of the Fed don’t send such strong signals without top-level backing. That suggests Powell is likely approving this step.

So what about the data? The labor market is sending mixed signals. In September, 119,000 jobs were added, but that followed a drop of 4,000 in August. Up and down, back and forth. But what’s more notable—according to the latest reports, in November employers began laying off more, freezing hiring, and cutting hours. Some companies point out that artificial intelligence is already replacing entry-level roles. Mester believes most of the weakness is driven by long-term factors that the Fed does not control—migration policy and changes in the labor pool. So she’s skeptical about whether rate cuts will help.

Meanwhile, Luke Tilley from Wilmington Trust is more optimistic—he expects another three rate cuts at the upcoming meetings because, in his view, the labor market will keep weakening. He estimates that in October, 154,000 government employees agreed to buy out their tenure, which could push unemployment up by 0.1 percentage point. Besides healthcare workers, the private sector is also showing negative employment growth. The picture really does look weak.

And here’s what Bank of America is forecasting—an interesting position. They expect two more cuts in June and July next year, but not for economic reasons—rather due to a change in Fed leadership. Their logic is this: if the rate falls this week, the Fed risks making policy too dovish right when fiscal stimulus begins to take effect. It’s a genuinely interesting perspective on domestic rates and on how they’ll be shaped in the context of leadership changes.

Accenture forecasts one to two additional easing steps next year, based on assumptions that core PCE will be 2.5%-2.7%, GDP 1.5%-1.8%, and unemployment at year-end 4.4%-4.6%. That’s a more conservative view.

This week is worth watching what officials say about what’s next. On Thursday, the Fed will release its quarterly rate projections for 2026. This will be a key moment—how they see domestic rates evolving further, and how they plan to address inflation and labor market weakness at the same time. In short: expect a compromise decision with hawkish signals.