Middle East Situation Brief | April 28

U.S.-Iran negotiations have hit a procedural deadlock. Iran proposed a “three-step” plan that pushes the nuclear issue to the back of the agenda, while the U.S. insists the nuclear issue must be handled first. The two sides’ core demands are seriously misaligned. The Lebanon-Israel temporary ceasefire is effectively meaningless: the Israeli military once again demands that residents of 16 villages and towns in southern Lebanon “evacuate immediately,” saying it will either “fight all year” or “keep going all year.” Iran’s parliament is upgrading measures to control the straits, planning to institutionalize wartime control systems; the Houthis have exposed a “toll-collection mechanism” for the Strait of Mandeb; and a new Gaza ceasefire proposal still meets with Israel’s cold reception. China’s statement at the UN Security Council says the root cause of the straits being obstructed lies in the U.S. and Israel’s illegal military actions.

1. U.S.-Iran negotiations: Iran throws out a “three-step” plan, while the U.S. insists on nuclear issues first

Iran proposes a phased negotiation framework, with the nuclear issue moved to the end

On April 27, Iran submitted a three-stage negotiation proposal to the United States through the mediation of Pakistan. The proposal divides negotiations into three stages: the first has as its core goal the complete ending of the war and resolving the Strait of Hormuz navigation problem; the second focuses on studying long-term mechanisms for controlling the strait; and only in the third stage does it enter discussion of the nuclear issue. Iran’s acting foreign minister emphasized that these negotiations are not technical nuclear talks, but are intended to determine war responsibility and seek end-of-war talks for war compensation. On the 27th, a White House spokesperson, Leavitt, confirmed that Trump and his national security team held a meeting that day specifically to discuss Iran’s new proposal, and Trump consulted with senior government officials responsible for national security of the two countries.

The U.S. is dissatisfied with the plan; core demands are seriously misaligned

The U.S. has taken a lukewarm stance toward the new proposal. An American official said that Trump is unhappy with the proposal, believing it does not touch the core issue of Iran’s nuclear program. The U.S. insists the nuclear issue must be addressed in the early stages of negotiations. Experts analyze that the likelihood of the U.S. accepting Iran’s three-stage framework is extremely low, because the two sides’ core demands are entirely misaligned: Iran is firmly oriented toward demanding claims and sanctions relief, requiring the U.S. to lift the blockade and provide war compensation, while the U.S. demands that Iran indefinitely suspend its nuclear program and hand over these enrichment facilities and materials. Iran’s position is hardline. In a joint statement, 261 members of Iran’s parliament stressed that they will resolutely uphold national interests, and that the delegation will not waver on the core interests of the country.

UN call: open the strait—no fees, no discrimination

On the 27th, UN Secretary-General Guterres spoke at the Security Council’s public debate on “Maritime Security and Protection of Waterways.” He directly called for the immediate opening of the Strait of Hormuz, urging relevant parties to allow merchant ships to pass through “without fees and without discrimination,” giving the collapsing global economy a chance to catch its breath. Iran’s Permanent Representative to the UN, Iravani, responded the same day by accusing the U.S. of “like pirates and terrorists,” saying it has openly violated international law by seizing Iranian ships and crew.

Fog still surrounds the negotiations for the next phase

Analysts believe Iran’s move is intended to shift from “passive defense” to “making an active move,” using the strait’s navigation as a bargaining chip to secure the U.S. lifting the blockade and to create breathing room for its own economic development. But whether the U.S. is willing to accept this framework remains unknown. There is a huge deficit of trust between the two sides, and under the current circumstances, face-to-face negotiations are unlikely to be launched soon. Israel remains cautious about U.S. concessions; Israel previously skipped multiple rounds of talks due to dissatisfaction with Iran’s proposals.

2. Lebanon-Israel conflict: Israeli forces demand residents of 16 villages evacuate; the ceasefire is effectively dead

Israeli forces issue evacuation orders, with “clearing operations” approaching the south bank of the Litani

On April 28, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) released a statement via social media, demanding that people in 16 villages and towns in southern Lebanon evacuate immediately. It said that the IDF is about to “take action” in the area, and warned that “anyone who comes near Hezbollah facilities will be in danger of losing their life.” The evacuation area lies south of the Litani River. The IDF instructed residents to move toward the Sidon area in the northwest direction. This is not the IDF’s first “clear-the-villages” order, but issuing evacuation orders for 16 villages and towns at once—on such a wide scale—is unprecedented, indicating that the IDF’s clearing operation is moving comprehensively toward the south bank of the Litani River.

Netanyahu: IDF pushing forward north of the Litani River, or “fighting all year”

On the 27th, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu said that the IDF is launching attacks toward Lebanon’s “forward defense line” and the areas north of the Litani River, claiming that to achieve its so-called security objectives, Israel has complete freedom of action in that country. IDF Chief of Staff Zamir went further, saying bluntly that 2026 “is very likely to still be a year full of fighting,” and that as the IDF’s operational burden continues to increase in the coming years, it urgently needs to add troops and service personnel. On the 27th, the IDF launched multiple rounds of airstrikes on more than 20 Hezbollah infrastructure sites in Lebanon’s eastern Bekaa Valley and southern Lebanon, hitting multiple arms depots and buildings used to fire rocket projectiles.

Israeli Defense Minister: If we’re being attacked, a ceasefire is impossible

On the 27th, Israeli Defense Minister Katz took a hardline stance, saying that as long as Israeli forces are still being attacked, a ceasefire is fundamentally impossible in Lebanon. The statement directly dismisses all outside expectations for a Lebanon-Israel ceasefire.

Actual casualties far exceed official numbers; CNN satellite images reveal villages “erased”

On the 27th, Lebanon’s Ministry of Public Health announced that since hostilities between Lebanon and Israel resumed on March 2, Israeli attacks against Lebanon have resulted in 2521 deaths and 7804 injuries. CNN compared satellite images and showed that after Israel’s sustained six-week military operations, multiple villages in southern Lebanon were almost wiped off the map. Border-town buildings were all reduced to rubble, and even mosques were not spared. During the night of the 27th, Israel carried out intensive airstrikes on multiple targets in southern Lebanon, causing 14 deaths and 37 injuries; among the dead were children and women.

The ceasefire is in name only; Lebanon-Israel talks fall into deadlock

A reporter from the China Media Group’s CCTV analyzed that although the ceasefire framework is still maintained in words, the parties’ military clashes have already stripped the agreement of any substantive effect. Once serious casualties or friction occur, the ceasefire could be torn up completely at any time, and both sides are likely to fall into a long-term, stalemated pattern of talks amid fighting.

3. Strait of Hormuz: Iran initiates 11 bills; first LNG ship suspected of “breaking through”

Iran plans to introduce 11 measures to institutionalize wartime control

In the frontline confrontation between the U.S. and Iran at the Strait of Hormuz, Iran is upgrading from on-the-spot control to legal-level checkpoints. On the 27th, Azis, chairman of Iran’s Parliamentary Committee for National Security, revealed that the parliament has drafted an 11-article comprehensive bill targeting the strait. The contents include limiting the passage of hostile ships, banning ships associated with Israel from passing through, and attempting to fully legalize the arrangement into a comprehensive system. This marks Iran’s transition of its strong wartime control from a temporary advantage toward institutionalization and long-term operation—posing a long-war posture of “this place is under my command.”

Iran’s foreign minister takes the baton for shuttle diplomacy, bypassing the U.S. to face Gulf neighbors directly

Iran’s acting foreign minister Aragchi made frequent visits to Pakistan, Oman, and Russia in just four days, laying out a multi-track diplomatic approach. Behind these moves is Iran’s clear strategy: through indirect communications with Pakistan, Iran seeks to avoid the deadlock in talks with the U.S.; by leveraging Oman and other Gulf countries to coordinate the security of strait passage; and by deepening strategic cooperation with Russia to obtain diplomatic support.

First LNG cargo ship suspected of crossing; cracks begin to show in the supply deadlock

According to vessel tracking data, an LNG cargo ship named “Mubaraz,” after passing through the Persian Gulf, has already proceeded into waters in the southern part of India. Its point of departure points to liquefaction facilities on Abu Dhabi’s Das Island, and its destination is set for a reception terminal in China. This is the first suspected LNG vessel to successfully pass through the Strait of Hormuz since the outbreak of hostilities. Although the ship shut off its location signals before and after transiting the strait, such operations—quietly crossing while shutting down transponders during wartime—are not an isolated case. Although the actual throughput remains far below normal levels, this move undoubtedly opens a small gap in the LNG market where global liquidity is extremely tight.

4. Houthis: Mandeb Strait may charge “tolls”; Red Sea risks are upgraded again

Copy the Hormuz model; prepare to institutionalize toll charges

Iran’s proxy, the Houthis, is trying to replicate the paid passage model of Hormuz in the Strait of Mandeb. According to Obsidian International, a British security intelligence organization, senior leaders of the group are actively discussing establishing a “toll collection mechanism” in the Mandeb Strait, intending to upgrade the group’s long-term harassment at the southern end of the Red Sea into formal control. While the mechanism currently still faces practical difficulties such as payment systems, once implemented it would mean the risk faced by Red Sea shipping changes from “sporadic attacks” to “institutionalized political toll charges.”

Somalia also joins in to block the Strait of Mandeb?

At the same time, Somalia’s authorities have released a completely independent hardline order: it clearly prohibits all Israeli ships from passing through the Strait of Mandeb. The trigger was Israel’s earlier status as the first country to recognize “Somaliland independence,” which Somalia regards as an open affront to its territorial sovereignty. If the southern Red Sea is tightened comprehensively, the security of the oil import supply chain in Asia will face higher-level risks of sudden disruption.

U.S. airstrikes hit Houthi anti-ship positions; deterrence response escalates head-on

In response to the Houthis tightening their grip in the Strait of Mandeb step by step, the U.S. has also launched a direct counterstrike recently. The U.S. Central Command confirmed that in Yemen’s southern Abyan province, it carried out a precision airstrike targeting an anti-ship missile launch site. The Houthis claimed that losses in Hodeidah province alone included 16 deaths and more than 40 injuries. Three U.S. aircraft carriers—the USS “Ford,” USS “Lincoln,” and USS “Bush”—are all simultaneously assembling in the Middle East, a highly rare deployment since the Iraq War.

Dual pressure—military and institutional

Houthi leadership has issued a public warning: if talks between the U.S. and Iran break down, the Strait of Mandeb will be completely sealed. For the U.S., this creates a dilemma: if it acts rashly, it will fall into long-lasting chaos at high cost; if it does not act, its deterrence will quickly erode.

5. Gaza Strip: A new ceasefire proposal is met with cold treatment by Israel; the political stalemate continues

Hamas has agreed to the new ceasefire plan

In the Gaza direction, the efforts of the four-party mediation are again caught in a new round of fruitless looping. Multiple Palestinian factions (including Hamas) officially announced last week that they agreed to the latest amended proposals for a ceasefire in Gaza put forward by Egypt and Qatar. However, so far Israel has provided no formal response.

Israel handles it coldly; the IDF still conducts small-scale strikes

Although Hamas has agreed to the plan, based on Israel’s stance, a real ceasefire in Gaza remains far off and frozen in the distance. Meanwhile, the IDF’s recent attacks on Gaza have not been fully stopped, and multiple incidents of casualties reported by health authorities show that the situation on the ground remains difficult.

Gaza municipal elections quietly proceed

Notably, amid the stalling of ceasefire talks, Gaza held its first municipal elections since 2005 on the 25th. This was also the first time in 21 years that Palestinians’ territory rolled out a full set of votes at the local level, reflecting that outside the ceasefire framework, localized governance processes for Palestinians are still moving forward in an irregular manner.

6. International response and energy impact

China’s statement at the UN Security Council: the root cause of the straits being obstructed lies in the U.S. and Israel

On the local time of the 27th, the UN Security Council held a high-level public debate on maritime security issues. Chinese Ambassador Fu Cong, China’s Permanent Representative to the UN, said that the Strait of Hormuz is an important international energy transport gateway, and that the root cause of the strait being obstructed is the U.S. and Israel’s illegal military actions against Iran. Fu Cong particularly criticized the U.S. for continuing to impose a maritime blockade despite the temporary ceasefire arrangements already agreed upon, emphasizing that the only way out is to stop the war comprehensively and in a lasting manner based on negotiations.

Markets closely watch for subsequent U.S.-Iran developments

In financial markets, investors are waiting to see whether the U.S.-Iran negotiations will show more signs of progress. In Asian electronic trading on the 28th, gold prices once fell slightly; the market focuses on how the U.S.-Iran negotiations will land and on a series of decisions by central banks. In cryptocurrencies, market sentiment is under pressure. Bitcoin is down nearly 2.50%, Ethereum down 3.65%, and other major coins are also declining in sync. $BTC ‌

Summary: Although U.S.-Iran negotiations have entered a new phase of exchanges over proposals, the two sides’ core demands remain misaligned, and Iran’s strategy of pushing the nuclear issue back is unlikely to gain the U.S.’s approval in the short term. The Lebanon-Israel conflict continues to escalate, with Israeli actions moving deeper into Lebanon. Iran is simultaneously advancing the institutionalization of strait control, and the Houthi threat in the Strait of Mandeb is also being amplified further. For Gaza, the new ceasefire proposal still awaits Israel’s response. When the Strait of Hormuz will resume normal passage, and when the U.S. and Iran will return to the negotiating table, remain the biggest variables going forward.
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