Just been looking at the AUD/USD setup and there's something worth paying attention to here. The employment market data coming out this week could be a real game-changer for where the Aussie goes next.

So here's the situation: the RBA basically squeaked through a rate hike back in March with a 5-4 vote. Pretty tight call. They bumped rates up another 25 basis points to 4.10%, but you could tell there was tension in the room about it. Some of the board members were clearly uncomfortable given all the uncertainty around just how tight the employment market actually is.

Now fast forward to this week. The March employment figures are dropping Thursday, and honestly, this data is going to be crucial for what happens next. The market is pricing in a pretty specific scenario: job creation is expected to slow down to around 17,800 positions, compared to February's 48,900. The unemployment rate is forecast to stay flat at 4.3%.

Here's where it gets interesting though. If the employment market report comes in stronger than expected, we could see the probability of another 25 basis point hike jump significantly. Right now it's sitting at 62% for the May 5 meeting, but stronger numbers could push that higher and maybe even accelerate the timing. On the flip side, if the employment market data disappoints, the RBA might pump the brakes and hold steady for longer.

From a technical angle, BBH is noting that AUD/USD is running into some real resistance around 0.7200. Below that, you've got support kicking in around 0.7000. So if the employment market data triggers another rate hike scenario, could see the pair test those levels pretty quickly.

Worth keeping an eye on. The employment market is basically the variable that's been throwing the RBA for a loop, and this week's numbers might finally give us some clarity on which way policy tilts.