#原油价格上涨 Is the oil market storm not over? Analysts warn: if Middle East conflicts drag on, oil prices could surge to $150

Since the outbreak of the US-Iran war, international oil prices have fluctuated dramatically with the Middle East situation: rising to nearly $120 per barrel at one point, then sharply retreating, and recently stabilizing around $100. Analyst Tamas Varga from crude oil broker PVM Oil Associates recently stated that the possibility of oil prices rising far above current levels cannot be ruled out. “If the conflict continues, we cannot exclude the possibility of oil prices breaking through $150,” Varga told the media, adding that if the interruption lasts longer, supply losses will exceed demand reductions. “Alternative energy sources cannot be supplied in large quantities in a short period to make up for shortages. Therefore, consumers will have no choice but to accept higher oil prices,” he said.

On Monday, oil prices rose more than 2%, reaching a two-week high, due to deadlock in US-Iran talks and continued restrictions on oil transportation through the Strait of Hormuz, leading to ongoing tight global oil supply. Brent crude futures rose $2.90 or 2.8%, closing at $108.23 per barrel; US crude futures increased $1.97 or 2.1%, closing at $96.37 per barrel. Currently, the US-Iran situation remains deadlocked. Investors are closely watching a new proposal submitted by Iran aimed at reopening the Strait of Hormuz and ending the war. The proposal primarily focuses on resolving the Strait of Hormuz crisis and the US maritime blockade of Iran, and suggests delaying discussions on Iran’s nuclear program.

According to reports, a US official stated that President Trump was dissatisfied with Iran’s latest proposal, believing it did not address the core issue of Iran’s nuclear program. Trump canceled plans for US officials to go to Pakistan for Iran negotiations last weekend, shortly after Iranian officials had just left Islamabad. Previously, he extended the ceasefire agreement with Iran indefinitely, but significant differences remain between the two sides.

Iran has called for the US to lift the maritime blockade on Iranian ports, while the US insists that the Strait of Hormuz must be reopened before any substantive peace negotiations begin. Varga warned that even if the conflict is resolved, market anxiety will not ease immediately. “Even if the conflict ends today, risk premiums will remain high for a long time, even if the oil supply and demand balance relax significantly,” he said. He added that the fragile Israel-Lebanon ceasefire agreement has already unsettled investors, and if hostilities escalate again, the risk of new strikes on regional oil infrastructure remains a real concern.

JPMorgan oil strategist also believes that the recent stability in oil prices could change soon because “there are issues in some parts of the market calculations.” The bank believes the market has underestimated the supply-demand gap, and oil prices could continue to surge. Citibank also predicts that oil prices could rise further, noting that if oil supply remains interrupted until June, Brent crude could reach $150 per barrel, with an average price in the fourth quarter possibly reaching $100.