Last night before bed, I checked the on-chain stablecoin supply curve again, and I saw a bunch of people linking ETF capital flows and the risk appetite in the US stock market to craft stories like "so crypto should go up/go down"... It gave me a headache. Correlation is a tricky thing; honestly, it's like monitoring alarms—just because an alarm goes off doesn't mean the data center is on fire. You need to look at the upstream and downstream: Is the stablecoin supply increasing or are funds moving from CEXs onto the chain? Is the ETF experiencing net inflows or just turnover? Over-the-counter funds are even more complicated; many times, they want to enter but are still watching at the door. Anyway, I now prefer to think of these as a few lamps—see if they light up, where they light up—without rushing to write the causal chain. First, understand the structure clearly before jumping to conclusions.