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Just noticed AUD/JPY pushing past 114.30 for the fifth consecutive day, and there's some interesting policy dynamics driving this move. The Aussie has been on a tear lately, mainly because the RBA is looking increasingly hawkish. They've kept rates at 4.10%, but market's pricing in about a 65% shot of a rate hike coming up, which could push the official cash rate to 4.35%. RBA Governor Andrew Hauser basically said current rates aren't doing enough to fight inflation, which is still sitting above their 2-3% target. That kind of messaging tends to support the AUD pretty strongly.
On the flip side, Japan's central bank is trying to push back a bit. BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda mentioned they need to be careful about raising rates given Japan's low real rates, and he pointed out that inflation there is more of a supply shock issue rather than demand-driven. So they're facing different constraints. What's interesting though is that Japanese authorities are hinting they might step in verbally on FX if needed. Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama even said they're coordinating with US Treasury and ready to act if necessary.
So the AUD strength makes sense in this context—hawkish RBA versus a more cautious BOJ, plus potential Japanese intervention risk. The pair's been grinding higher, but that intervention threat could be a ceiling for now. Worth watching how this plays out over the next few days.