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Just came across an interesting take from UBS strategists on why the US stock market could still have legs. Apparently they're pretty bullish on continued upside over the next year, and their reasoning actually makes sense when you dig into it.
So here's the thing - we're in earnings season right now, and UBS is expecting S&P 500 companies to deliver around 17% profit growth this quarter. That's the strongest we've seen since late 2021, which is honestly pretty solid. The profit growth momentum is being driven by a few things: the US economy is holding up well, semiconductor demand is through the roof thanks to all the AI infrastructure spending, and financial plus materials stocks are looking particularly strong.
What caught my attention is that UBS thinks actual results are very likely to beat expectations. They're also noting that the Iran situation hasn't really dinged corporate earnings so far, which is worth noting given all the geopolitical noise.
The broader point here is that if profit growth continues at this pace and the economy stays resilient, there's probably more room for the market to run higher. Obviously nothing's guaranteed, but the fundamentals around earnings growth are looking pretty decent right now. Worth keeping an eye on as more companies report.