World Bank: Energy prices are expected to rise by 24% by 2026

The World Bank announced on Tuesday in its latest Commodity Market Outlook that if the most severe damage caused by the Middle East war ends in May, energy prices are expected to surge by 24% by 2026, reaching the highest level since the Russia-Ukraine conflict four years ago. The bank stated that if hostilities in the region escalate and supply disruptions last longer than expected, commodity prices could rise further. The baseline scenario assumes that shipping through the Strait of Hormuz will gradually return to near pre-war levels by October, but the risks are “significantly tilted” toward higher prices. Given the surge in energy and fertilizer prices and several major metals reaching record highs, overall commodity prices are projected to increase by 16% by 2026. The World Bank said attacks on energy infrastructure and disruptions to Strait shipping have triggered the largest oil supply shock in history, with Brent crude oil prices expected to reach an average of $86 per barrel in 2026, up sharply from $69 per barrel in 2025. If key oil and natural gas facilities suffer more war damage and exports recover slowly, the average price of Brent crude could reach as high as $115 per barrel this year.