Recently, someone asked me again where the returns from LST/re-staking actually come from...

My mind automatically pops up a chart: one column labeled "Basic Staking Rewards," one column labeled "Additional Incentives/Subsidies," and a final column labeled "Sounds Attractive but Might Be Risk Pricing."
In other words, the first two items can still be clearly calculated, but that pile at the end is often just the project trading risk for attention.

Don't overcomplicate the risk: if smart contracts have issues, de-pegging, liquidity gets stuck, re-staking splits the same safety into multiple parts to sell...
One day when the market tightens, TVL will first spike like a fever and then cool down, leaving the scene faster than it entered.

Recently, with rate cut expectations, the US dollar index, and risk assets all moving together, I don't want to impulsively place orders either:
I usually first write a simple explanation of the "source of returns" in a memo, then review it overnight.
If I can't explain it clearly myself, I just give up for now and think about it after waking up.