Gold Under Pressure: Strong Dollar and Rising Oil Keep Bears in Control

Gold is currently under significant pressure. It's trading close to a one-month low, sitting around $4,595, which means it's down about 2% just today. This is mostly happening because the US Dollar is getting stronger, and people are more worried about inflation as oil prices go up.

It's been two months now since the US and Israel began their attacks on Iran. While a ceasefire is still holding, actual progress in peace talks remains elusive. Donald Trump and his team aren't buying Iran's latest offer, especially with the nuclear discussions stalled. All this uncertainty keeps the market on edge and is helping to prop up the US Dollar.

The US Dollar Index is currently trading around 98.74 and continues its upward trend. Typically, when the dollar gets stronger, it makes gold less attractive since it costs more for people buying with other currencies.

Meanwhile, oil prices are climbing because there are problems with supplies near the Strait of Hormuz. This situation is making people more concerned about inflation, and it's also making them think the Federal Reserve will hold interest rates higher for an extended period. When rates are higher, gold becomes less appealing since it doesn't offer any returns.

Right now, everyone is just waiting to see what the Fed decides. While most expect interest rates to stay put, all eyes are on the Fed's upcoming statements. If they sound tough on inflation, gold could continue to struggle.

Looking at the 4-hour chart, XAU/USDT has definitely turned bearish after dropping below its ascending trendline. This move confirms a change in its overall pattern, with the price now setting lower highs after being rejected around the 4,860–4,880 supply zone.

The main resistance level sits somewhere between 4,760 and 4,800. For gold to truly head higher, it really needs to get back above the major level of 4,860–4,880. Looking at the downside, the price is currently holding close to the 4,530–4,550 support area. Should that level fail, the next spot where buyers might step in is around 4,400–4,280.

The momentum right now is clearly leaning bearish. The oscillator reading is below zero, showing no signs of bullish divergence, and the trading volume points more towards selling off than buying up.

As long as the price stays under 4,700, the overall trend looks to be downwards, aiming for 4,530 and potentially 4,400. If it manages to push above 4,700, we might see a brief recovery towards 4,800–4,860, though that particular zone will probably act as a ceiling once more. For a true bullish reversal, the price would need to firmly stay above 4,880.

All in all, this isn't a market where you'd want to buy on dips anymore. The current pattern suggests it's better to sell when prices go up, instead of trying to chase them down.

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