Scarcity of bills causes holders to be reluctant to sell; Shanghai copper spot prices may continue to stay relatively strong.

Judging from the bill structure, the current-month bill tightness in the Shanghai copper spot market shows no sign of easing. Holders generally raise their quotes for current-month bills, making low-priced sources hard to find. Some downstream enterprises, in order to secure the issuance of invoices for the current month, prefer to purchase directly from smelters, which creates a certain diversion of spot demand from the trading market. From the holders’ behavior, as the month-end approaches for settlement, some holders are not very enthusiastic about selling, with a “hold tight” sentiment becoming evident, further tightening available deliverable spot supplies. From the demand side, next week will bring the May Day holiday. Downstream enterprises have pre-holiday stocking needs, so procurement may increase to some extent; meanwhile, their preference for current-month bill supplies will further intensify the spot market’s structural tightness. Overall, under the combined effects of bill shortages, holders’ reluctance to sell, and pre-holiday stocking, it is expected that tomorrow the Shanghai copper spot will keep a premium versus the 2605 contract, and the market will continue to maintain a generally strong outlook. (SMM)