BTC Current Pattern: Daily DMI shows a strong upward trend (bullish trend not broken) + Daily MACD death cross (additional bearish signal) + 15-minute bearish arrangement + 15-minute DMI downward trend strong + 15-minute/4-hour CCI/WR both oversold + 15-minute MACD bottom divergence + volume-driven decline + broke below MA20 + Fear & Greed Index at 33 + $78K–$79K resistance repeatedly rejected.

Key change from previous analysis: Daily MACD death cross confirmed (new bearish signal), 4-hour MACD divergence has evolved into 4-hour CCI/WR deep oversold (shifting from risk of bearishness to oversold rebound signal), 15-minute from MACD death cross + SAR bullish to bearish arrangement + DMI downward trend strong + CCI/WR oversold + MACD bottom divergence (bearish trend dominant but oversold rebound signals dense).
Bearish scenario (probability about 55–60%): Daily MACD death cross + 15-minute bearish arrangement + DMI downward trend strong + volume-driven decline + broke below MA20 + $78K–$79K resistance repeatedly rejected + Fear & Greed Index at 33 + Most analysts in X community are bearish. If it breaks below $76,000–$76,900 (key channel lower support), downside target is $74,500–$75,000.
Bullish scenario (probability about 40–45%): Daily DMI shows a strong upward trend + 4-hour SAR bullish trend + 15-minute/4-hour CCI/WR both oversold + 15-minute MACD bottom divergence + Strategy/BlackRock/Morgan Stanley continue large-scale accumulation + funding rate negative (shorts crowded). If it holds above $76,129.5 (today’s low + 4-hour SAR stop-loss) and rebounds to break through MA20 at $76,579 → $78k–$79k, it may trigger short squeeze, targeting $80,000–$81,000.
Operational ideas:
$76,129.5 is the most critical immediate support (today’s low + 4-hour SAR stop-loss): if broken, the 4-hour bullish trend reverses, with the lower $76,000–$76,900 channel lower boundary as the second line of defense.
$76,579 (MA20) is the first target for short-term strength: reclaiming this level confirms a short-term bottom.
Intense oversold signals on 15-minute/4-hour charts: CCI/WR both oversold + MACD bottom divergence, indicating a high probability of short-term technical rebound, but rebound strength depends on whether it can reclaim MA20.
Daily MACD death cross confirmed: medium-term bearish signal, rebound may face resistance again.
$78k–$79k is a key resistance zone: breaking through this area confirms a shift to bullish in medium to short term.
Continuous accumulation by Strategy + BlackRock + Morgan Stanley: medium-term bullish support is very strong, and the correction may be limited.
Fear & Greed Index at 33: market is in fear zone, historically this zone often presents medium-term accumulation opportunities.
Recommend light positions: short-term oversold rebound can attempt light long positions, with stop-loss below $76,000; wait for daily MACD death cross signal to digest before medium-term deployment.