$BTC

This wave of short positions, if triggered, is expected to fall to around 75,500.
Bitcoin evening analysis 4/28: $79,500 surged and then pulled back, short-term weak but ETF support is clear.
First, the conclusion: tonight leans towards a decline, but not a deep drop.
Today, BTC surged to $79,500 last night and then steadily fell back to around $76,800, a 24-hour decline of about 1%. This rebound and pullback is not surprising—$80k already has psychological pressure, and it failed to stabilize twice last week.
On the news front, today’s situation is quite tangled. The Iran talks are stalled again, with Iran’s foreign minister heading to Russia and not negotiating a second round with the US. Oil prices continue to rise, with Brent up 2% over two days. Asia-Pacific stock markets mostly declined today, with the Nikkei falling significantly. In this environment, risk assets are naturally under pressure.
There’s also no good news from the Federal Reserve. The March meeting minutes show more officials are considering a rate hike this year, with inflation expectations raised from 2.4% to 2.7%. Although it’s far from actually raising rates, the tone is already changing.
However, there is support—ETF inflows this week have been very strong. Over the past 8 trading days, net inflows reached $243 million, with BlackRock’s IBIT holdings exceeding 800k BTC, accounting for nearly 4% of the total supply. ETF buying is effectively providing a floor for the market, making it quite difficult for short-term selling pressure to break below $75,000.
To summarize: in the short term, the market is indeed weak. The failure to break through $79,500 twice indicates strong resistance above, and tonight will likely see oscillations between $76,000 and $78,000. It’s not recommended to chase longs at this level, but if the $75,500–76,000 zone can hold, it could be a short-term rebound opportunity. The main trend still depends on a real breakthrough above $80K.