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$BTC
Evening Bitcoin Roadmap and Recommendations
Bitcoin has been moving in a stepwise decline within the price channel. According to AB=CD, this wave of decline is also nearing its end. This is just an indicator-based judgment of whether the current decline has reached its final stage; indicators may not be that accurate and might just be a downward probe before stabilization.
I just want to tell you that currently, the risk-reward ratio for shorting is not very good. It will only open up more downside space if it breaks below 76,000. Look at the position indicated by the yellow arrow below; it has already inserted two probes downward but hasn't broken the support at 76,224. Could this form a small double bottom pattern? You could say it’s a potential small double bottom because the rebound hasn't broken above the neckline at 77,278. Only if it breaks through 77,278 and stabilizes above that level can we say the double bottom pattern has formed. Alternatively, if it probes downward 2-3 times without breaking support at 76,224, it could indicate a multiple bottom formation. Since a support level tested 3-4 times without breaking, Bitcoin itself is unlikely to fall below it unless external negative news hits, which would also be a good opportunity for a left-side bottom-fishing.
For those looking to bottom-fish on the left side, you need to patiently wait for Bitcoin to test the 76,224 support again and observe the price action before deciding whether to bottom-fish. As long as it doesn't break below 76,224 on the hourly level, the decline won't expand. If it breaks below 76,224, pay attention to the level at 74,919 below. To initiate a rebound, it must break through the neckline at 77,278. Only after breaking 77,278 can we look upward toward 78,434 and the previous high. If it can't go up or down, it will oscillate around 77,278-76,224 until the US stock market opens, which will then determine the direction.
Trading Suggestions
Around 77,000-77,500, watch for a move toward 75,800-75,200; otherwise, consider setting up for a dip.
The yellow bullish trend line indicated by the red arrow on the 4-hour chart has been broken, but it hasn't fallen below the midline of the box at 76,502. As long as the 4-hour timeframe doesn't break below this midline, it won't revisit the lower boundary of the box at 73,651. Breaking below 76,502 would weaken the 4-hour bullish trend, but the trend hasn't been destroyed yet. Only if it breaks through the consolidation range of 79,403-73,651 and re-enters the lower box at 72,963-70,406 will the bullish trend be truly broken. To fully destroy the 4-hour bullish trend, it must break below the consolidation box at 72,963-70,406. Otherwise, the 4-hour bullish trend remains healthy, just less strong than before, but not a reversal.
The above is just personal advice; please follow Sister Lin’s layout for specific actions. $BTC
$BTC