Bole Evening Analysis

Today, spot gold generally weakened, showing a pattern of rising then falling, dominated by bears. In the Asian session, gold prices briefly rebounded to around $4,700 per ounce before facing downward pressure, continuing the decline in the European session, trading around $4,615 by the evening, with a daily drop of over 1.6%, hitting a low of $4,604, showing clear weakness.

From the news perspective, negative factors are intensifying. The Federal Reserve FOMC meeting is imminent tomorrow, market expectations for rate cuts are cooling, the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields remain high, suppressing the upward space for gold. Meanwhile, international oil prices surged over 2%, boosting inflation expectations and reinforcing the Fed’s stance to maintain high interest rates, indirectly bearish for gold. Additionally, some central banks are selling gold, and institutions are lowering gold price targets, increasing bullish panic and triggering profit-taking at high levels.

On the technical side, the daily chart broke below the 5/10-day moving averages, with short-term moving averages in a bearish alignment; the 4-hour chart shows a weak downward trend, with multiple rebounds failing, and bearish momentum continuing. The core outlook for the evening is mainly bearish, with resistance at $4,650–$4,670. Rebound pressure suggests a short-selling opportunity; key support below is at $4,600. If effectively broken, it could open the downside space toward around $4,580.

A bullish outlook should be approached with caution. Only if gold stabilizes above $4,670 and geopolitical risk sentiment suddenly heats up (such as worsening Middle East tensions) would short-term long positions have a chance to play; otherwise, the main strategy remains to sell on rebounds.