79400 is confidently identified as the top of the rebound; BTC will find it difficult to surpass 80,000 again. Today’s focus is on whether it can hold steady above 77,000!

The post I just published was deleted in less than 10 seconds. I was worried my post wasn’t perfect enough, and then a bunch of people would criticize me, so I tried to include all possible scenarios. After deleting it, I rewrote it. I never delete a post just because I was wrong; if I was wrong, I was wrong, and I won’t delete the post.
Yesterday, I was still hoping it could rebound from 77,400 to near 80,000. I saw many negative funding rates and noticed that yesterday’s top breakout only moved a few dozen dollars. I wanted to see if there was a chance to get in and add to my short position. After the US stock market opened yesterday, there was indeed a rebound, but it only filled the gap left by the large downward candle at 78,200, not reaching 80,000. So I knew that 79,400 was the top. I decisively shorted again at 78,100, adding to my position, with an average price pushed up to 77,500. When BTC dropped again to 76,500 today, I saw some rebound demand, so I took profit on my short and went to sleep. But when we can confirm the rebound at 76,500, it’s only filling the gap left by the second large bearish candle around 77,400, and BTC has not stabilized above 76,500. In this situation, if the rebound cannot hold, we can confirm that the four-hour upward structure has been broken, meaning the rebound rally is likely over. I believe the subsequent trend will be downward.
There are two possible scenarios:
First, BTC stabilizes above 77,000 again today, not just testing but truly holding. If that happens, I interpret this drop as a trap to stop out long positions, so there’s still a chance to reach 80,000 later. But currently, it hasn’t stabilized above 77,000, and I don’t think it will today.
Second, the last critical support for BTC is around 75,000 to 76,000, especially with a large number of buy orders at 75,000. If this level cannot hold, it basically means the bulls are completely out of the game, and 80,000 can be ruled out. If it can still hold here, there’s a very small chance of testing the 80,000 resistance, but that probability is very low. Most likely, the market will continue to decline in a one-sided manner, with some rebounds in between, but on the daily chart, the trend should remain bearish.