Lately, I’ve been feeling that the macro approach is quite "ruthless": when interest rates rise, risk appetite immediately shrinks, and the market shifts from "daring to push" to "just trying to survive." My own transmission path is simple—first look at on-chain congestion and active addresses. When there's heat but no congestion, and addresses are increasing, I dare to slightly raise my positions; once capital becomes expensive and on-chain activity cools down again, even if the candlestick looks okay, I’ll shrink back, anyway, I won’t go against myself.

The collapse points in blockchain games are also quite textbook: inflation suppresses coin prices, studios run away, and the remaining players get thinner and thinner... Basically, it’s a downward spiral. When I see this kind of structure, I usually take a screenshot to remind myself not to be fooled by the "liveliness," just leave it at that.