Super Week is Coming: Central Bank Interest Rate Decisions, Major Earnings Reports, and Geopolitical Developments Set the Tone for Q2

Jiaozhu, Golden Finance

Summary

The financial markets are迎来 a super week, with five major central banks集中议息, key economic data releases, and tech giants公布财报. These economic data will directly影响 global economy and asset pricing in the second quarter.

After the US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting ends this week, several large tech companies will逐步发布 earnings reports. The market generally认为 that the so-called “super week” has arrived, and the data trends this week可能决定 the direction of global股市.

1. Five Major Central Banks集中议息

1. Bank of Japan (April 28): Interest rate unchanged

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) held its third consecutive meeting with the target interest rate保持在 0.75%, in line with market expectations.

Japan’s actual economic growth rate预期被下调. For fiscal year 2026, it is 0.5%, down 0.5 percentage points from previous estimates; for fiscal year 2027, it is 0.7%, down 0.1 percentage points. Considering rising oil prices and物流停滞将推高物价, which will exert downward pressure on the economy, the BOJ决定暂不加息.

BOJ Governor Ueda Kazuo指出: Currently there is no immediate need to raise interest rates. If current supply shocks产生二次连锁反应, then rate hikes will be necessary.

Hirofumi Suzuki, chief FX strategist at Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation,表示: There are three votes支持加息, which is somewhat unexpected; policy committee member Shunko Nakagawa also转而支持加息. In Japan, the impact of Middle East冲击 has already begun reflected in consumer confidence, which itself令人担忧, and this影响预计将 further传导 to prices. Meanwhile, the yen仍面临贬值压力 in financial markets. Overall, the BOJ将别无选择, only maintaining its hawkish stance. If Middle East tensions缓和, it is预计该行将在6至7月进一步加息.

2. Federal Reserve FOMC (April 29): Interest rate expected to remain unchanged

The Fed will hold its April 28-29 meeting, with市场普遍预期 that interest rates will保持在 3.50% to 3.75% for the third consecutive time. CME FedWatch数据显示, the market has fully priced in this month’s hold.

According to CME “Fed Watch” data, the probability of the Fed保持利率不变 in April is 100%. The probability of a 25 basis point cut by June is 4.5%, with a 95.5% chance of保持不变.

Barclays analysts在报告中表示: Amid high inflation, the Fed预计将在本周会议上维持联邦基金目标利率区间不变, but可能在今年降息. They said: “In an environment of high uncertainty, the Fed tends to hold steady, supported by strong demand and still-high inflation, and policymakers have also signaled reduced confidence in further rate cuts in the near term.” They also noted: “If inflation declines as expected, the Fed预计将在9月左右获得足够信心开始放松政策.” Based on LSEG data, the market currently prices in a 10 basis point cut in 2026.

3. Bank of Canada (April 29): Interest rate expected to remain unchanged

TD Securities预计加拿大央行将在4月会议上将隔夜利率维持在 2.25%, and可能持续到2026年剩余时间. They believe the Bank will adopt a more balanced yet cautious tone, emphasizing双向增长风险 from油价上涨 and USMCA重新谈判, while忽视短期通胀飙升.

TD strategist Andrew Kelvin指出: “We expect the Bank of Canada to保持利率在 2.25%, and the policy statement will再次体现谨慎基调. Rising energy prices will push the Bank to大幅上调通胀预期 in the April MPR, while core inflation and GDP revisions will be relatively温和. The key point is that we expect the Bank to指出油价上涨带来的‘双向’增长风险, and保持其忽视短期通胀影响的承诺.”

He added: “We still expect the Bank of Canada to保持按兵不动 in the remainder of 2026, especially given recent unexpected declines in CPI. Recent rate hikes, especially the rise in Canadian forward rates, should be viewed as传导对美联储降息预期, rather than an accurate反映 of the outlook. The current December rate pricing at 2.61% suggests a slow回归到战前水平, rather than rapid调整 due to single dovish data point or communication.”

4. Bank of England (April 30): Interest rate expected to remain unchanged

Market surveys suggest that the MPC members are likely to支持维持当前 3.75%基准利率 with an 8-1 vote. Previously, in March, the BoE’s vote was 9-0 to保持基准利率不变. The consensus is that due to ongoing geopolitical uncertainties from the Middle East, it is prudent for the central bank to再次“按兵不动” this week.

However, investors believe that later this year, the BoE可能会加息. The market has基本消化了7月加息25个基点的预期, and expects possibly another hike in September, with a small chance of a第三次加息 before year-end. However, BoE Governor Andrew Bailey警示 that such hikes may be premature.

5. European Central Bank (April 30): Interest rate expected to remain unchanged

Rainer Guntermann, a rate strategist at Deutsche Bank,在本周欧洲央行政策会议前的报告中表示, the ECB will继续密切关注高企的油价. Since the US has暂停与伊朗的谈判 efforts and the Strait situation仍陷入僵局, short-term油价不太可能明显回落. “This will keep the ECB警惕, but it’s still too早 to加息 this week.”

2. Key Economic Data

1. US

April 28: Release April Consumer Confidence Index from Conference Board; April 30: Release March Durable Goods Orders initial, April Fed meeting decision, Q1 GDP annualized rate, March Conference Board Leading Index MoM.

2. China

April 30: Release China’s April official manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI.

3. Europe

April 29: Release March M3 money supply YoY; April 30: Release Q1 GDP seasonally adjusted MoM, April CPI YoY, March unemployment rate, April ECB interest rate decision.

4. Japan

April 28: Release March unemployment rate; April 30: Release March machine tool orders final YoY, BoJ interest rate decision, March retail sales YoY, March industrial output MoM preliminary.

3. Tech Giants Earnings Reports

According to Huannan Yongchang Securities, five of the “Big Seven” US stocks—Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, Microsoft, and Apple—will发布业绩 this week. The current market narrative focuses on whether巨额资本支出 in AI has translated into相应的收入增长. Microsoft, Alphabet, and Meta’s 2026 capital expenditure guidance shows significant growth compared to last year, and the market will closely watch AI货币化 progress. Despite the S&P 500 hitting new highs recently and 84% of companies已公布业绩 outperforming expectations, market breadth has deteriorated, with most普通股表现疲软.

Domestically, BYD, Foxconn, Cambrian, Sinopec, and China Merchants Bank等龙头 will发布 their Q1 reports successively.

4. Geopolitical Developments

Iran and US delegations可能在未来几天举行第二轮谈判. Iran has conveyed to the US that it希望美国总统特朗普减少威胁性言论, and indicated that if US立场趋于缓和, hardliners within Iran可能更支持参与谈判.

Iran will hold a nationwide大游行 at 3 PM on April 29 to展示国家力量.

Summary

In summary, this super week has明确了全球金融市场的短期主线: 高利率环境将持续主导资产定价.

Tech giants’ earnings and geopolitical risks将成为后续经济市场波动的核心驱动力，投资者应重点关注央行政策走向、AI盈利兑现、地缘政治风险、油价波动等信号。