April 29th, Powell's final eagle cry?

It's not about halving, not an ETF, but this old man's last fierce grip on your neck.

The market is now as quiet as a cemetery before a storm.

CME FedWatch says—maintain interest rates in April with a 100% probability.

No one is surprised.

But everyone is watching one sentence:

This time, will Powell be dovish or throw a punch?

This is not an ordinary policy meeting.

It's Powell's final battle of his term.

Old Powell is leaving.

Wash's obstacles have been cleared, and the successor is sharpening their knives.

Do you know the pattern of history?

What is the most likely thing a hawkish official about to leave office will do?

—It's not easing, but leaving a "final hawkish legacy."

To tell future generations: I withstood inflation and didn't soften.

If Powell says on April 29th:

"Inflation remains high, rate cuts are premature"

"Labor market remains strong"

"We are not in a hurry to act"

Sound familiar?

How will the market react?

It will directly reprice the rate cut expectations for the second half of the year.

The market's current bet on a June rate cut will slip through like sand from between fingers.

BTC is now barely holding on to a critical level.

Do you know what 78k represents?

It's not a technical indicator, but the last line of emotional defense.

If Powell roars hawkishly:

- Liquidity expectations tighten

- Risk assets are first to be devalued

- BTC will be the first pushed off the cliff

78k is not support; it's psychological comfort.

Break it, and it becomes 75k, 72k, or even worse. #加密市场小幅下跌 #伊朗提出霍尔木兹海峡重开协议条件 $BTC