Assuming Japan raises interest rates in June, based on the characteristic that before every sharp selloff there is always a phase of rebound that forms a local peak (within 6–7 weeks), I’m making a forecast two months in advance for the upper limit of BTC’s rebound: it could get very close to 96,000, which corresponds to the weekly Bollinger Bands upper band. This is the most ideal trajectory for the next 6 weeks, and the probability isn’t low either—it aligns with the direction of oversold rebound on the weekly timeframe. It may only take about 6–7 weeks to reach that level.

Assuming the top is 96,000, then based on the historical bear-market characteristic of the decline magnitude of the third main downleg, the lowest point of the sharp pullback is calculated as 96,000 - (96,000 - 59,800) * 1.214 = 52,053. Wow—when you see this number, what does it remind you of? It matches the ~52,000 produced by another calculation method in the prediction post pinned on my X (assuming this year’s third main downleg exists).

This formula is the crystallization of wisdom: after these past few years, I repeatedly calculated and summarized several major up-and-down swings each year. In the 2022 bear market, that’s how I inferred the bottom, traded the “major bottom” around 17,000, and kept holding until above 96,000 before I started clearing spot positions.

So, whether the third main downleg exists or not, it definitely requires the occurrence of a super strong negative catalyst to bring it about. The lowest point of this main downleg can be precisely locked within a range using: the starting point of the selloff - (the starting point - the lowest point of the previous main downleg) * 1.214 (this coefficient is generally between 1.214 and 1.386, and will not be higher than 1.386). Everyone can save/bookmark this, and when the time comes you can lock it in early on your own—then share your “surprise” with me. If you lock it in early, first, your high-position short positions can be near their take-profit area around that level; second, you can also buy the major bottom in advance. The moment Japan’s rate hike lands, you can start preparing immediately.