Lately I've been looking at a few blockchain game pools again, and the more I look, the more it feels like a familiar script: producing a bunch of coins every day, while the consumption side only involves one-time expenses like "leveling up / drawing cards / repairing equipment." Inflation is like opening a water tap, and in the end, the pool relies on new players to fill it... Basically, they treat "output" as benefits and "consumption" as faith, which can't last long.

My favorite reverse indicator is the moment I get itchy to buy the dip, hoping for a "shorter payback period," and then it keeps getting shorter until it hits zero—quite educational. I've learned my lesson now: don’t always think about catching the turning point with extraordinary talent; more often, it’s about habits: watching output growth rate, whether there’s continuous consumption, and whether the team only knows how to double down on production.

By the way, I want to complain that recently some people are interpreting ETF capital flows, US stock risk appetite, and crypto price movements as if they’re all tightly linked, which gives me a headache... Of course, macro factors influence sentiment, but for small economies like blockchain games, internal inflation exploding, no matter how much "risk appetite improves" externally, it won’t save them. Anyway, I’ll keep a low profile for now, so I don’t get caught in a collapsing pool once I enter.