This morning I was again looking at address tagging/clustering methods, to be honest, they can be useful but don't be too superstitious. An address could belong to an exchange hot wallet, or it could be a multi-signature shared by a few people, or even just a back-and-forth move to create a "profile." When I see so-called "smart money entering the market," I now only treat it as a hint: what are they buying, whether they add more after buying, whether they withdraw the next day—these are more important than "who" it is.

Recently, someone was talking about expectations of interest rate cuts, the US dollar index moving in sync with risk assets, rising and falling together. My feeling is that emotions are tangled: one macro sentence, and on-chain data immediately becomes like a revealing mirror or a funhouse mirror... Anyway, don’t rush to write a script for capital flows.

My current approach is quite cautious: when I see a tagging signal, I first set a reminder/limit, don’t chase impulsively. Before the reminder sounds, I still feel itchy; but when the price turns back or data weakens, I breathe a sigh of relief: oh, it turns out I didn’t really want to buy that much. That’s it for now.