Iranian oil tanker mass detention at Chabahar Port, U.S. naval blockade approaching "cut-off" critical point

BlockBeats News, April 28—According to shipping monitoring agencies and satellite data, due to the U.S. Navy blockade, Iran’s crude oil exports are rapidly grinding to a halt. A large number of supertankers fully loaded with crude oil have assembled in the waters near Chabahar Port, just a step away from the area under U.S. military control.

Data shows that in the Oman Gulf region, there are currently 6 to 8 VLCC supertankers and multiple medium- and small-sized tankers at anchor. In the week prior, the U.S. military intercepted and adjusted the routes of two large tankers in the region.

As the transport function of the Strait of Hormuz moves toward near paralysis, the size of Iran’s offshore floating storage has risen to roughly 1.55e8 barrels of crude oil. To keep exports going, Iran has even restarted old tankers that had been out of service for three years, with an age of 30 years.

Kpler data shows that Iran’s remaining on-hand oil storage capacity can only last for about 12 to 22 more days. If the blockade continues, the market expects Iran to begin cutting production as early as mid-May, with the scale potentially reaching 1.5 million barrels per day.

Export figures have also worsened markedly. In March, Iran’s average daily crude oil exports were still around 1.85 million barrels, but recently they have fallen to 567,000 barrels, a drop of about 70%.

Analysts note that because Iran’s crude oil is mainly sold to Asia via indirect channels, the impact on revenue typically shows up with a lag of 3 to 4 months. Therefore, the current blockade’s hit to fiscal revenue has not yet been fully reflected.