Bole Lunchtime Analysis

The spot gold price in the midday session is weak and volatile, currently quoted around $4,633 per ounce, down 1.24% intraday. After spiking to 4700 USD in the Asian session, it has been steadily retreating, with fierce battles between bulls and bears.

The news is a mix of bullish and bearish factors. On the bearish side, the upcoming Federal Reserve FOMC meeting has cooled expectations of rate cuts in 2026, with less than a 40% chance of a rate cut this year. The dollar and U.S. Treasury yields have stabilized, suppressing gold prices' upward potential. Meanwhile, the Shanghai Gold Exchange raised the margin requirement for gold today to 21%, making leverage cautious, and early trading saw increased selling pressure. Additionally, profit-taking at high levels continues, with a clear reduction in long positions.

Bullish support remains. Uncertainty persists in the Middle East, with no renewal of Iran-U.S. ceasefire agreements, and shipping through the Strait of Hormuz is restricted, temporarily supporting gold prices due to geopolitical risk aversion. The long-term logic of central banks buying gold globally remains intact, limiting deep declines.

Technically, the outlook is weak, with the daily chart breaking below the 5/10-day moving averages, and a short-term death cross forming, indicating bearish momentum is dominant. Short-term resistance is at $4,670–4,700, with support at $4,600–4,620. The midday trading strategy is mainly to short on rebounds, with light long positions on dips after stabilization, strictly controlling position size and stop-loss, and patiently awaiting the Fed decision to break the deadlock.