$BTC BTC Intraday short-term upward channel structure has been effectively broken, the bullish upward pattern has disintegrated, and the phased trend reversal signal is gradually materializing.

The medium to long-term view remains unchanged from previous judgments; 6w is not the ultimate bottom of this round of market, and the overall bear market correction structure has not yet completed.

The current market has re-established a downward channel, entering a weak oscillation and decline cycle in the short term, with key resistance around 774; support is seen near 763. Once support is broken, forming a double top structure, the downward space will further open.

From the daily chart technical structure, MACD bullish momentum continues to weaken, rebound energy is severely insufficient, and all rebound trades mainly involve short positions following the trend. Short positions arranged at high levels can be held and viewed downward, taking profits on the pullback.

Even if short-term market movements include trap traps, secondary tests of previous highs, and liquidity harvesting actions above, the upper limit of this rebound is only around 815, with very limited space.

In the context of a bear market cycle, trading strategies must be conservative; avoid blindly bottom-fishing or going long against the trend, especially after continuous stretching, as the risk of chasing the rise is extremely high, and positions are easily trapped at high levels.

Subsequently, patiently wait for the structure to land; only after the market effectively breaks below 6w and hits a new phased low of stopping the decline, should one consider gradually adding long-term long positions, with a holding period of more than half a year. #Polymarket每日热点