Does Anyone Still Understand BTC? An Overview of Factions in the Market

The biggest consensus about BTC this year is actually the lack of consensus; everyone says they no longer understand BTC. Below is a summary of viewpoints from some factions I have observed, and you can choose your own side:

1. Macro Economy Faction (Optimistic in the Mid-Term, Mixed at Year-End)

Betting on significant progress of the Transparency Bill in May, optimistic. Betting that the meeting between the two heads of state in May will reduce geopolitical risks and boost risk appetite, optimistic. Betting that the Republican Party will hold key seats in the midterm elections, optimistic by the end of the year; betting that Democrats will regain the House and Trump’s agenda will be hindered, pessimistic by the end of the year.

2. Mystical Faction (Extremely Pessimistic by Year-End)

The 365-day and 1065-day cycle theories (as shown in the chart below) have accurately predicted BTC peaks and troughs over the past 10 years. The prediction of a peak in early October 2025 last year was remarkably accurate, and the next trough points to early October this year. Intuitive faction: My friends I’ve talked to, who have experienced at least one bull and bear cycle, all agree that in Q3-4, there will be more than one major project/exchange/cryptocurrency fund collapse, a chain reaction.

3. Short-Term Price Drop Charting Faction (Short-Term Price Drop)

BTC is waiting for the price to hit the daily Vegas Channel or EMA200 and the previous range structure bottom, around 80k, to fill the CME futures gap before establishing long short positions.

4. Influencer Faction (Various Opinions​)

BTC: Short at 82k, 80k is a false breakout. BTC definitely will not reach 80k, don’t think about it. BTC will return to 100,000. “I no longer understand cryptocurrencies, I will trade US stocks and use AI.” “I made 100,000 from 100 USDT trading AI. Send me a 399 USDT participation fee and I will teach you how to trade event contracts with a high win rate.” I’m very curious to see which side everyone supports 🤣