Demand-driven arbitrage improvement, Shanghai copper may remain at a discount tomorrow

Looking ahead to tomorrow, from the regional price difference perspective, the intraday Shanghai-Guangdong price gap has further widened to around 250 yuan/ton, and the arbitrage space has expanded further. Subsequently, the willingness of East China sources to transport to South China may increase, which is expected to divert circulating supplies in the Shanghai market and provide marginal support to the local spot discount. Additionally, the current Shanghai copper spot market has a relatively tight monthly ticket supply for trading ports, with some holders choosing to use next month’s tickets for shipments, and the price difference between this month’s and next month’s tickets remaining at 30-40 yuan/ton. On the demand side, copper prices are currently fluctuating sideways, and downstream companies’ acceptance of current copper prices may have slightly improved, with order placement intentions slightly rising but still mainly driven by rigid demand. Overall, under the combined effects of mild demand improvement, cross-regional arbitrage driving, and ticket structure differentiation, it is expected that tomorrow’s Shanghai copper spot price will continue to trade at a discount to the 2605 contract. (SMM)