I started recording several key points in stablecoin supply, ETF subscriptions and redemptions, and over-the-counter inflows and outflows, mainly to cure my habit of jumping to conclusions whenever I see two lines moving together. Frankly, correlation does not equal causation: an increase in stablecoins might just be due to arbitrage demand or exchange reserves, or it could be old money switching parking spots; ETF inflows don't necessarily immediately turn into on-chain buying, as there are many channels and emotions in between.

Recently, modularization and the DAO layer have been getting a lot of hype, with developers excited beyond measure, while ordinary users look confused. I, on the other hand, am more cautious: the smoother the narrative, the easier it is to mistake "explanation" for "evidence." For now, I’ll keep recording and rely less on intuition for bets.