The biggest feeling from observing the market over the past two weeks is not "which chain has taken off," but rather that the interest rate line has been pulling everyone's hand. To put it simply, when interest rates are high, risk-free assets outside become more attractive, risk appetite shrinks, and positions naturally don't dare to be enlarged; when interest rates loosen, everyone's confidence returns a bit, but it's not a quick bull market, more like "daring to try a little."

I myself now use a very simple method: layering positions, with short-term positions shrinking with sentiment, and long-term positions only looking at whether on-chain products truly have more users. Recently, the calendar for staking unlocks and token unlocks has been brought up again to discuss selling pressure. I also get nervous, but I care more about whether on-chain activity and new funds keep up after the unlock, otherwise even the best narrative can't withstand that sudden sell-off. Anyway, first focus on survival, then gradually add.