I was swiping through on the subway, and then I saw someone directly translate “ETF today net inflow/net outflow” into “crypto will go up/crypto will go down”—to be honest, the correlation isn’t that clean. The same goes for stablecoin supply: more USDT/USDC doesn’t mean that off-chain money is necessarily rushing into the crypto space; it might just be moved around, switched channels, or even cooked up as “liquidity” on paper.

Sometimes I’ll casually check the on-chain mint/burn timeline and line it up with changes in the deposit addresses of a few major exchanges (I won’t post the hash—lazy). And often you can see this: stablecoins increase first, but the coin price doesn’t move; ETF outflows happen and risk appetite in US stocks drops, but on-chain leverage is still stubbornly holding on… At that point, if you try to insist on “causality,” it gets pretty awkward. Anyway, I trust “the path” more now: where the money comes from, how it comes in, where it stops—and don’t let a few money-flow charts get you carried away.