Today I saw someone say that those "coincidental transfers" on the chain are insider information again. At first, I was quite stubborn: I only look at the chain, treating prices and news as noise.

But after watching for a while, I realized that many so-called coincidences are actually just because the paths haven't been broken down—exchanges' hot wallets moving funds, cross-chain bridge inflows and outflows, market makers replenishing inventory, the same batch of addresses making payments in installments.
When connected, it’s not so mysterious anymore.

However, recently some regions are tightening taxes and compliance measures, then loosening them again. As deposit and withdrawal expectations change, the rhythm of these on-chain paths will also shake: some move funds onto the chain in advance to wait for opportunities, others simply disperse small amounts to stay safe.

I’ve changed a bit now: on-chain remains the main focus, but I also have to admit that sentiment can influence "route choices." To put it simply, it’s better to first clarify the routes, then guess people's intentions—more reliable.