#比特币突破7.9万美元

Bitcoin's technical rebound is nearing its end, with short positions dominating long ones

Yesterday, under the influence of the White House Press Association dinner shooting incident and the Middle East ceasefire negotiations, geopolitical uncertainty increased. Driven by the risk aversion and risk appetite tug-of-war, Bitcoin successfully broke above $79k, nearly triggering stop-losses on medium-term short positions held by the "Little God." However, the good times didn't last long; after hitting resistance near 79,500, the price quickly retreated, and today it fell by 3%, closing at $76,752. Moving forward, I suggest short-term buying and long-term selling; I believe today’s BTC will peak around 78,000.

📊My strategy: Continue holding medium-term shorts, open small long positions for quick rebounds, targeting around 78,000.

📈Key market point analysis:

✅Technical indicators: Moving average system: The daily chart price remains above the 5-day moving average (currently around $76,000), indicating a short-term bullish trend; however, the 30-day and 50-day moving averages are continuously pressing down, showing clear medium- and long-term resistance. Bulls need sustained volume to reverse the pattern.

MACD indicator: On the hourly chart, MACD showed a golden cross near the zero line, but momentum weakened afterward, with decreasing red bars and signs of bearish divergence, indicating waning upward momentum and increased risk of a correction.

RSI (Relative Strength Index): The 1-hour RSI once surged to 78 into overbought territory, then quickly fell back to 58, reflecting short-term sentiment shifting from euphoria to neutrality, and the market entering a correction phase.

Bollinger Bands: Price repeatedly tested the upper band resistance, now falling back near the middle band (around $76,500). Bandwidth has narrowed, indicating reduced volatility and a potential upcoming directional breakout.

✅Capital flow trends: US spot Bitcoin ETF continues to see net inflows, with nearly $1 billion in the past week alone. BlackRock’s iBit ETF saw over $900 million inflow last week, demonstrating strong institutional confidence.

✅Technical resistance: Bulls face a key resistance at $80k; if unable to break through effectively, a retest of lower levels is possible. Support levels are at $72k and $65k zones.

✅Market sentiment divergence: Retail investor sentiment remains cold, but institutions continue to accumulate, creating a divergence pattern of “whales buying, retail waiting.”

👉Support and resistance:

Key resistance: $79,000–$80k is a strong pressure zone, overlapping previous highs and institutional profit-taking areas, making突破难度大。

Core support: $72k is a short-term bull lifeline; if broken, the price could drop to the $67k–$65k range, a strong support zone validated multiple times since 2026.

What do you think about today’s market high? Have you participated in the Polymarket prediction? Come and leave a comment!