The overall market is in a consolidation with a bearish trend. Technical indicators (moving averages, BOLL position) are biased bearish, MACD shows convergence but remains below zero, RSI is weak. The most critical factor is the capital flow; large-scale and sustained net outflows in the futures market are a strong bearish signal. Although there is slight inflow in spot and futures markets in the short term, it is unlikely to reverse the overall trend. The price is consolidating with reduced volume near a key support level, indicating a higher probability of a downward continuation. In terms of trading strategy, avoid chasing short positions and wait for a rebound to the resistance level or a confirmed breakdown to initiate short positions for better risk-reward.



Conservative strategy: Wait for the price to effectively break below 76,400 (24-hour low and psychological support) or 76,300 (BOLL lower band), then enter after a rebound confirms it cannot regain those levels.
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