Recently, I saw someone interpret large on-chain transfers and hot/cold wallet movements on exchanges as "smart money"... I'm a bit hesitant about how much trust to place in this. Address profiling, tagging, clustering—basically, it's about labeling a bunch of behaviors; how accurate the labels are depends heavily on samples and assumptions: an address could be custody, multi-signature, a relay, or even just acting for show. Fund flows are the same; flowing into exchanges doesn't necessarily mean a dump, flowing out doesn't mean a moonshot, and there are also market making, lending, chain swapping, and collection activities in between. Anyway, I only treat these factors as "weak signals" when I use them; they must be analyzed together with price action and trading volume. If wrong, I review and learn; my position size won't be a full tilt just because of a certain label.