📈 WTI breaks above 108; gold prices stay flat: What is the market afraid of?

Oil prices and gold prices—those “difficult brothers” that usually move up together when geopolitics turns tense—are showing a rare split in their trend. Behind it lies an intense contest between two core logics.

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1. 🚢 Geopolitical premium: from “expectation” to “payment”

The strait’s “toll” has moved from proposal to a substantive stage.

• Key progress: Iran’s comprehensive control plan is leaked from parliament; it’s reported that the first fee has already been credited. Strait transit efficiency has dropped sharply, and the market has begun to price actual costs and supply-disruption risk.

• Oil price performance: Brent crude jumped through $108 in response to “supply rigidity.” WTI is building momentum above $96, with the $100 mark just one step away.

2. ⚖️ Gold “loses its grip”: absolute suppression by high interest rates

Although geopolitical risks and a surge in oil prices are typical bullish factors, gold is still “flat” in the $4,680–$4,700 range.

• Underlying reason: Tomorrow night (April 29–30), the last FOMC meeting during Powell’s tenure will be held. Higher oil prices intensify inflation concerns, and the market generally expects the Federal Reserve to maintain a hawkish stance of “higher for longer.”

• Market logic: Before “rate cut expectations” are completely crushed, the “straitjacket” of real interest rates firmly suppresses gold’s financial attributes. Gold is currently trading as “monetary rigidity.”

3. 🔭 Outlook: keep an eye on two key nodes

• For oil prices: The bellwether is the strait’s actual transit conditions. If implementing “toll collection” leads to shipping continuing to reroute, the narrative of tightening supply will push oil prices higher.

• For gold: Tomorrow night’s Federal Reserve decision is the decisive moment. Any hard signals on anti-inflation measures could weigh on gold prices, while switching to more dovish signals—this is the only key that would open the door to an uptrend.

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One-sentence summary:

The market is moving forward while being torn apart: crude oil trading is driven by the “supply wound” of reality, while gold trading is driven by the “interest-rate straitjacket” of expectations. Before the Federal Reserve’s “sword of Damocles” falls, this split pattern is likely to persist.

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