Bro Tong BTC's public thoughts today

1. Yesterday's Market Review
Yesterday morning: BTC surged to 79455 (local top)
Then quickly dropped to around 77900, entering sideways consolidation (first downtrend continuation)
After sideways, a slight rebound lured longs → second drop to 76400 (this round's low)
Current: Narrow fluctuation around 77100
Core summary: High-level rally to unload → breakdown continuation → lure longs then kill → weak oscillation at low levels, a typical bearish shakeout structure.
2. Technical Analysis (completely bearish dominance)
79455 forms a double top: multiple attempts to break but fail, volume-price divergence is serious, clear signal of institutions pushing up to unload.
Key supports consecutively broken: 79000→78500→78000, the bullish defense line collapses completely.
77900 is a downtrend continuation: prolonged sideways, weak rebound, declining volume on dips, not a bottom but a phase of bearish buildup.
Second lure + breakdown: slight rebound to trap retail investors, then volume surges to break through 77000 and 76500, confirming the bearish trend.
Current 77100 oscillation core:

Strong resistance: 77800–78200 (previous sideways bottom + dual MA resistance)
Strong support: 76400–76000 (this round's low area)
Small cycle: bearish arrangement, no volume on rebounds, volume on declines, after oscillation, more inclined to downward probing.
3. News Analysis
BTC actively peaks ahead of US stocks
79455 is a high-volume top, with obvious volume-price divergence, indicating institutional manipulation to push up and unload; US stocks had not opened or weakened at that time, BTC moved down independently, not driven by macro sentiment (US stocks) collapse, but mainly by the crypto market’s own main players unloading.
US stocks weaken at open, accelerating BTC decline (assist role)
US stocks fall at open, market risk appetite cools, BTC with high volatility faces increased selling pressure; combined with market expectations of a hawkish Fed FOMC meeting (4.28-4.29), high interest rate environment continues to suppress risk assets, BTC follows downward.
US stocks rebound, but BTC does not follow up and instead lures more longs then drops again
US stocks slightly rebound during the session, but BTC does not follow, instead using the "US stocks warming" expectation to lure longs: small rise to attract retail bottom-fishing, then reverse to sell, breaking through 77000 and 76500 supports. Essentially, main players leverage the weak→rebound rhythm of US stocks to perform a second shakeout, BTC’s movement is less correlated with US stocks, mainly driven by its own trend.
Other key news
Previous positive factors (BTC conference, ETF inflows) have all been realized, no new bullish news to support the market.
End-of-month options expiration approaching, combined with crowded long positions at high levels, selling pressure persists.
4. Capital Flow Analysis (bears actively sell, bulls caught, completing harvest)
79455 high level: US stocks not open or weak, large institutional sell orders crush the market, long positions heavily swept, triggering stop-loss cascades.
US stocks weaken at open: macro sentiment turns bearish, bears add positions, selling pressure increases, directly dropping to 77900.
Lure phase: US stocks slightly rebound, retail blindly bottom-fish, main players reverse to sell again, increasing deep longs and liquidations.
Drop to 76400: concentrated longs forced to close, forming negative feedback, the more they sell, the more pressure, accelerating downward.
Current oscillation: bulls and bears stalemate, bears wait for rebounds to add, longs are deeply trapped and lying flat, market volume shrinks, showing a narrow tug-of-war pattern.
5. Core Summary + Today's Trading Strategy
Core summary
$BTC Peaked ahead of US stocks and actively sold off; US stocks weakening at open only accelerated the decline; subsequent US stock rebound, BTC did not follow but instead lured more longs then dropped again. Essentially, the main players in the crypto market are actively unloading at high levels + shakeout, US stocks only assist the rhythm, 79455 is an independent major top, the current bearish trend is clear. #比特币突破7.9万美元
Trading conclusion: Bearish, rebounds are opportunities to short
Entry point: 77500–78000
Stop-loss point: 78500
First target: 76400
Second target: 75000