BTC Weekly Chart:

1. MA30 gradually approaches MA120 with a death cross. Once a death cross forms, the MA30 indicator will be invalid for at least half a year. The next focus for MA30 is a flat turn upward. One point to watch for MA30 is the 31st week before, which is exactly the large bullish candle just before this round of bull market peak (2025.9.29).
The previous major decline ended with a long lower shadow bearish candle at 70,400 (2026.2.2). Assuming this point is where MA30 later flattens and turns upward, 30 weeks equal 7.5 months, which is before the end of September, so the bottom might be around August. Too early, unlikely.
If MA30 flattens around late December, going back 7.5 months, it coincides with the first half of May. That is, the closing price after the big weekly decline in early May could be the MA30 flattening price at the end of the year (end-of-year weekly bullish candle closing price), with the bottom before December. Very likely.
2. The weekly closes on Friday, with a high probability of a bullish candle. Attention should be paid to, if the monthly candle closes with a long upper shadow bullish candle, it increases the probability of a significant decline in May.
3. After MA30 becomes invalid, focus on the death cross of MA60 and MA90/MA120 to determine the bottom of the bear market.
Currently, two points for MA60: a. 61st week before, with a 14.3% decline, closing at 80,759 (2025.3.3); b. Today is the second day of this week, and careful observation shows MA60 is slightly flattening. If this week’s close is above 80,759, it indicates MA60 is turning upward, which contradicts the bearish MA60 trend.
Since the monthly candle closes first, then the weekly, this rebound in April is nearing its end. The high is 79,486, with limited upside. Even if it continues to rebound and breaks 80,000 or 80,759, it would be a trap set by the main players before a big drop, and the weekly close would still need to come down, with tight timing.
4. The top of this bull cycle is expected around early October 2025, over a month earlier than the previous cycle. NASDAQ/US indices hit new highs, but major US stocks did not synchronize, showing divergence between stocks and indices, with more risk seen in May. Crude oil remains high; gold has not reached a bear bottom, but both are subject to bull-bear cycles, which pressure BTC and extend its bear market cycle.
Projection: On May 1st, Friday, a long upper shadow bullish monthly candle; on May 4th, Monday, a large bearish weekly candle. If next week forms a bearish engulfing or other bearish pattern, the decline in the first half of May becomes more certain.

BTC Daily Chart:
Focus on whether MA30 and MA120 form a golden cross, or if MA30 turns downward directly or after a golden cross. If MA30 turns downward, it indicates oscillation and decline, possibly crossing below MA60/MA90 or even MA120, forming multiple death crosses, signaling a major decline. Usually, before a big drop, the daily chart oscillates repeatedly; stay firm in your stance, or it’s easy to go against the trend.