Lately, I keep seeing people say things like "Increase in stablecoin supply = a rally is coming" or "ETF net inflow = off-chain funds are definitely coming in" as conclusions... Listening to that makes me a bit uneasy. Many things on the blockchain are more like "water level gauges"; a high water level doesn't necessarily mean rain is coming, it could just be everyone pouring water into the bucket first, waiting for opportunities, redemptions, or moving funds to other chains. There is some correlation, but I really don't dare to assume causation recklessly.

When I look at these data, I tend to ask myself: Are these stablecoins newly minted or bridged over? Are they sitting in exchange addresses, or in lending pools/market-making pools? The same goes for ETFs—short-term inflows and outflows can be very emotional, so don’t overreact based on a single candlestick.

By the way, the recent NFT royalty mudslinging also looks quite similar: platforms say they need liquidity, creators say they need income, everyone uses "good for the market" as a reason... But "who benefits" and "how it propagates" are really not things that can be decided with a single sentence. For now, I’ll keep being the person who opens permission pop-ups first to see what permissions are requested.