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Iran’s Hormuz Move: “Let’s Open the Strait, Talk Nuclear Later”

On April 27, 2026, diplomatic channels came back to life. Iran, through Pakistan, delivered a new proposal to the United States: reopen the Strait of Hormuz and end the war. The notable part: the nuclear program is off the table for now. According to reports from Axios, Reuters, and The Hindu, Tehran is ready to normalize commercial traffic through the Strait in exchange for lifting the naval blockade and removing restrictions.
Details of the Proposal 1. Open the Strait First: Iran proposes lifting its “chokehold” on the Strait of Hormuz and postponing nuclear negotiations. The goal is to quickly restore commercial flows through the waterway that carries 20% of global oil and LNG. 2. Lift the Blockade in Return: Tehran wants the US to end its blockade of Iranian ports and related sanctions. Two regional officials confirmed the offer was conveyed behind closed doors via Pakistan. 3. Extend the Ceasefire: The plan envisions making the ceasefire long-term or permanent, with nuclear talks starting only after the Strait is reopened and restrictions are lifted. Why Now?
The Strait of Hormuz has been effectively closed since April 24, 2026. After US-Israeli strikes, Iran mined the Strait and halted transit. Global supply fell by 10 million barrels per day, and Brent topped $107. Tanker traffic has nearly stopped; Kpler data showed only one oil-products tanker entered the Gulf on Sunday.

Pressure is also building inside Iran. Trump claimed Iran is “losing $500 million a day” and “starved for cash.” Tehran appears to be prioritizing the economy, aiming to ease domestic opposition and bypass hardliners on the nuclear issue.
Washington’s Position: “We Have All the Cards”
President Donald Trump told Fox News, “We have all the cards. If they want to talk, they can come to us, or they can call us.” The White House confirmed it received the proposal but did not say whether it would accept it. Trump wants a comprehensive deal that fully ends Iran’s nuclear program and includes the Strait of Hormuz to make any ceasefire permanent. He intends to keep the naval blockade as a negotiating lever.

According to Axios, Trump is set to hold a Situation Room meeting Monday with the National Security Council. On the table are two options: consider Iran’s “phased solution” or maintain the blockade to increase pressure.
How Markets Are Reading It 1. Oil Prices: Reopening the Strait could trigger a correction of up to 15% in Brent. For every day it remains closed, the risk premium stays alive. Goldman Sachs keeps its fourth-quarter Brent forecast at $90. 2. Shipping and Insurance: Shippers remain cautious. Maersk said “there is no full clarity on maritime security” and has not resumed transit. Hapag-Lloyd stated it will not take orders “until we see that a ceasefire is permanent.” 3. Regional Diplomacy: Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi spent the weekend shuttling between Islamabad, Muscat, and St. Petersburg. Oman and Pakistan are taking on mediator roles. Points of Disagreement Delaying the Nuclear Issue: Iran wants to defer the uranium enrichment dispute to overcome internal divisions. Hardliners don’t want the nuclear topic at the table at all. US Demands: Washington insists Iran halt uranium enrichment for 10 years and ship existing stockpiles out of the country. Maritime Regime: The head of Iran’s Parliament National Security Committee said, “all ships wishing to pass through the Strait will pay a transit fee,” signaling pursuit of a new maritime regime. The EU objected, saying a transit fee violates international law. Next Steps 1. White House Decision: The Trump administration will choose between keeping the blockade as leverage or testing an “economy first” approach. 2. Mine Clearance: Iran laid about a dozen mines in the Strait. Sources say their locations are known, but removal will take time. 3. Tanker Traffic: Iranian state TV announced the first ship passed through the Strait after the ceasefire. MarineTraffic showed two Greek-flagged and one Chinese-flagged bulk carriers transited. Overall Assessment
Tehran’s “Hormuz first, nuclear later” formula is a tactical move to end the war and relieve the economy. For oil markets, opening the Strait could quickly erase the risk premium above $100. However, the US does not want to lift the blockade without assurances on the nuclear program.

The next 72 hours are critical. The signal from the Situation Room will determine whether Brent heads toward $90 or $110. If diplomacy wins, not only tankers but also global inflation expectations will breathe easier.

Disclaimer: This content is not investment advice. Geopolitical developments can change rapidly. Base your decisions on current data and expert opinions.