Market Strategy Tips (Evening of April 27 – Since April 28) Gold Special

Market Analysis
Since last night, the gold market has been in a wide-range oscillation pattern driven by the comprehensive solidification of the Federal Reserve's long-term high interest rate expectations + the strong pressure from the dollar index stabilizing above 100 + the recurring deadlock in Middle East geopolitical tensions + the dual game of profit-taking at high levels and physical buying. International gold prices initially surged overnight, then came under pressure and fell back, briefly testing the key support at $4,660 during the Asian session, followed by a technical rebound from oversold levels, repeatedly tugging at the $4,700 round number. Overall, the situation shows a tug-of-war between "macro hawkish suppression and geopolitical safe-haven support," with a 24-hour amplitude exceeding $60, and the risk of high-level volatility continues to intensify.
Macro News
Core macro theme: The hawkish expectations of the Federal Reserve have frozen the rate cut expectations, with dual pressures from a strong dollar and geopolitical uncertainties pulling in opposite directions.

The Fed's policy outlook has fully solidified hawkish expectations, with rate cut expectations remaining frozen: After the US Q1 GDP and core PCE inflation both exceeded expectations, the market's pricing for a rate cut within the year has continued to cool down. Currently, the CME FedWatch tool shows a 100% probability of the Fed holding rates steady in June, with the probability of a rate cut in September falling to 22%, and the full-year expectation of no cuts rising to 58%. Long-term high interest rates have become a consensus in the market. Overnight, multiple Fed officials continued to signal hawkish views, emphasizing persistent inflation stickiness, stating there is no need to rush to cut rates, and even leaving open the possibility of resuming rate hikes, further reinforcing market expectations of tightening policies.
The dollar and US bonds remain high, exerting strong core pressure on gold prices: The dollar index overnight stabilized above the 100 mark, maintaining near four-month highs, currently at 100.12 during the Asian session; the 10-year US Treasury yield remains near 4.5%, a half-year high, continuously raising the cost of holding gold priced in dollars, which is a key macroeconomic bearish factor suppressing gold prices.
The Middle East deadlock persists, safe-haven demand provides a bottom support: US-Iran ceasefire negotiations have made no substantive progress, Iran continues to control the Strait of Hormuz, with shipping volume less than 10% of normal levels. Overnight, US military forces and the Iranian Revolutionary Guard again confronted each other at sea in the Persian Gulf, with spillover risks still present, supporting gold prices with rigid bottom support. Meanwhile, international oil prices surged significantly overnight, with Brent crude rising 2.75% to $108.23 per barrel, as worries about stagflation marginally warm, providing marginal buying support for gold.

Gold Market Trends
1. Price Performance

International Market: International spot gold opened at $4,701.30 per ounce on the evening of April 27, driven by geopolitical sentiment, surged to $4,729.95 per ounce during the session, then was pressured down by a strong dollar and profit-taking at high levels, leading to a unilateral decline. During the Asian session on April 28, it briefly dipped to $4,667.16 per ounce; currently, it is quoted at $4,688.77, down slightly by 0.06% over 24 hours, with a daily range exceeding $62. COMEX gold futures main contract closed overnight down 0.99% at $4,729.20 per ounce, with a slight rebound during the Asian session, latest at $4,735.8.
Domestic Market: Shanghai Gold Exchange gold T+D latest at 1032.8 yuan/gram, down 0.44% intraday, with a low of 1028.29 yuan/gram; Shanghai Gold main contract latest at 1034.22 yuan/gram, down 0.59%, with a low of 1029.50 yuan/gram during the session. Chow Tai Fook, Lao Feng Xiang, and other mainstream brands' retail quotes for pure gold remain at 1442.0 yuan/gram, roughly unchanged from the previous day.

2. Core Drivers of Rise and Fall

Bearish pressure: The dollar index remains above 100, and US bond yields stay near half-year highs, continuously raising holding costs and suppressing gold prices; the largest global gold ETF, SPDR Gold Trust, reduced holdings by 0.86 tons on April 27, with institutional funds showing a continuous net outflow since late April, combined with profit-taking at high gold prices, becoming the main reason for the decline.
Bullish support: Safe-haven demand driven by geopolitical uncertainties in the Middle East, coupled with the ongoing long-term logic of central banks worldwide continuing to buy gold, as per the World Gold Council, which shows that in Q1 2026, global central bank net gold purchases hit a record high for the same period. China's central bank has increased gold holdings for 18 consecutive months. There is rigid physical demand support in the $4,660–$4,680 range, which helped the oversold rebound of gold prices.

3. Key Range

Core support levels: $4,660–$4,680 (intraday low + key support/resistance zone), strong support at $4,600–$4,620 (previous key low)
Core resistance levels: $4,730–$4,750 (overnight rebound high), strong resistance at $4,780–$4,800 (round number + dense trapped positions from history)

Special Reminder
Gold is currently in a broad oscillation correction cycle after reaching historic highs, with the core macro pressure from the Federal Reserve's long-term high interest rate stance still in place. The resistance above $4,730 has turned into a short-term strong resistance zone. Coupled with extreme uncertainty in Middle East geopolitical tensions, intra-day volatility risks are sharply amplified. Do not blindly bottom-fish or go against the trend; beware of secondary declines after a weak rebound. It is recommended to operate with light positions within the range, only attempting small long positions if the price stabilizes above the strong support zone of $4,660–$4,680, with strict stop-loss at $4,650. Consider taking profits on rallies above $4,730, strictly control positions, and avoid extreme volatility risks caused by geopolitical and policy uncertainties. 😁